Survivorship Bias
- “why does success advice not work”
- “survivorship bias explained”
- “the planes that didn't come back”
- “what am I not seeing in the data”
01 · Side by side
Side by side
Comparison sheet
| Aspect | Survivorship bias | Confirmation bias |
|---|---|---|
| Where the error sits | In the data you can see | In the person weighing it |
| Classic case | Wald's returning aircraft | Reading only what agrees with you |
| Kind of bias | A statistical selection error | A habit of reasoning |
| First question to ask | What didn't make it into the sample? | What would change my mind? |
02 · Which one you meant
Which one did you mean?
In shortReaders who land here meaning Survivorship Bias rather than Confirmation bias are usually searching for phrases like “why does success advice not work”, “survivorship bias explained”, “the planes that didn't come back”.
Confirmation Bias
- “why do I only find evidence I agree with”
- “what is confirmation bias simple”
- “how to test your own beliefs”
- “seeking out what confirms you”
03 · Which came first
Which came first
In shortSurvivorship bias. 1943 — Abraham Wald, working at Columbia's Statistical Research Group, writes eight memoranda on aircraft vulnerability. The available data recorded where returning aircraft had been hit — a sample that excluded every plane shot down.
- 1943
Survivorship Bias. Abraham Wald, working at Columbia's Statistical Research Group, writes eight memoranda on aircraft vulnerability. The available data recorded where returning aircraft had been hit — a sample that excluded every plane shot down.
- 1960
Confirmation Bias. Peter Wason gives 29 people the triple 2-4-6 and asks them to find the rule by proposing triples of their own. The rule was simply 'any three ascending numbers'. Only 6 reached it without first announcing a wrong one.
04 · Read either one
Read either one in full
05 · Tell these apart too