Hot Hand Fallacy
- “is the hot hand real”
- “hot hand fallacy debunked”
- “do streaks in sport mean anything”
- “was the hot hand study wrong”
01 · Side by side
Side by side
Comparison sheet
| Aspect | Hot hand | Gambler's fallacy |
|---|---|---|
| Domain | Human performance | Independent events |
| Independence holds | No | Yes |
| Still a fallacy? | Contested | Yes |
| Key year | 2018 | 1913 / 1971 |
02 · Which one you meant
Which one did you mean?
In shortReaders who land here meaning Hot Hand Fallacy rather than Gambler's fallacy are usually searching for phrases like “is the hot hand real”, “hot hand fallacy debunked”, “do streaks in sport mean anything”.
Gambler's Fallacy
- “after nine heads isn't tails due”
- “gamblers fallacy explained”
- “do lottery numbers get due”
- “why streaks feel like they must break”
03 · Which came first
Which came first
In shortGambler's fallacy. 1913 — At the Monte Carlo Casino, a roulette ball lands on black 26 spins in a row. Gamblers piled money onto red on the reasoning that the streak had to correct, and lost heavily. The commonly repeated 'millions of francs' figure is journalistic; the 26-spin run is the durable part.
- 1913
Gambler's Fallacy. At the Monte Carlo Casino, a roulette ball lands on black 26 spins in a row. Gamblers piled money onto red on the reasoning that the streak had to correct, and lost heavily. The commonly repeated 'millions of francs' figure is journalistic; the 26-spin run is the durable part.
- 1985
Hot Hand Fallacy. Gilovich, Vallone and Tversky analyse basketball shooting data, find no evidence that made shots raise the chance of the next one, and conclude the widespread belief in the hot hand is 'a powerful and widely shared cognitive illusion'.
04 · Read either one