:: COMPARE ::
The short answer
Long taught as twin errors, they have parted company. The gambler's fallacy remains a genuine error because roulette spins are independent by design. A basketball player is not a roulette wheel, shots are not independent draws, and the analysis that declared the belief false has since been shown to be biased. Treating the two as equivalent is now itself the mistake.
Side by side
| Aspect | Hot hand | Gambler's fallacy |
|---|---|---|
| Domain | Human performance | Independent events |
| Independence holds | No | Yes |
| Still a fallacy? | Contested | Yes |
| Key year | 2018 | 1913 / 1971 |
What each one means
The hot hand fallacy is the supposed error of believing a performer on a streak is temporarily more likely to succeed next — a label that a landmark 2018 correction showed rested on flawed statistics, and may not be a fallacy at all.
Full definition of Hot Hand Fallacy →The gambler's fallacy is the mistaken belief that a run of one outcome in a truly random process makes the opposite outcome 'due' on the next try.
Full definition of Gambler's Fallacy →