Hindsight Bias
Hindsight bias is the feeling, once you know how something turned out, that the outcome was obvious all along and that you saw it coming.
Full definition of Hindsight Bias →:: COMPARE ::
Hindsight biasvsOutcome bias
The short answer
Outcome bias judges the quality of a decision by how it turned out. Hindsight bias distorts what you believe was knowable at the time. They stack: hindsight supplies the false certainty that outcome bias then punishes people for not having.
Side by side
| Aspect | Hindsight bias | Outcome bias |
|---|---|---|
| Distorts | What was knowable | How you judge the decision |
| Question | Could they have known? | Did it work? |
| Victim | Your past self | The decision-maker |
| Order | First | Second |
What each one means
Outcome bias
The contrast above sets out how Outcome bias differs from Hindsight Bias on the points that actually matter.