01 · Side by side

Side by side

Comparison sheet
AspectGambler's fallacyHot hand
PredictsThe streak breaksThe streak continues
DomainIndependent eventsHuman performance
StatusA genuine errorContested since 2018
RootLaw of small numbersLaw of small numbers
02 · Which one you meant

Which one did you mean?

In shortReaders who land here meaning Gambler's Fallacy rather than Hot hand are usually searching for phrases like “after nine heads isn't tails due”, “gamblers fallacy explained”, “do lottery numbers get due”.

Gambler's Fallacy

  • “after nine heads isn't tails due”
  • “gamblers fallacy explained”
  • “do lottery numbers get due”
  • “why streaks feel like they must break”
03 · Read either one

Read either one in full