Gambler's Fallacy
The gambler's fallacy is the mistaken belief that a run of one outcome in a truly random process makes the opposite outcome 'due' on the next try.
Full definition of Gambler's Fallacy →:: COMPARE ::
Gambler's fallacyvsHot hand
The short answer
Mirror-image readings of the same streak: one says it must break, the other says it will continue. The crucial asymmetry is that the gambler's fallacy is genuinely a fallacy for independent events like roulette, while the 'hot hand' label is now contested for human performance, where outcomes are not independent.
Side by side
| Aspect | Gambler's fallacy | Hot hand |
|---|---|---|
| Predicts | The streak breaks | The streak continues |
| Domain | Independent events | Human performance |
| Status | A genuine error | Contested since 2018 |
| Root | Law of small numbers | Law of small numbers |
What each one means
Hot hand
The contrast above sets out how Hot hand differs from Gambler's Fallacy on the points that actually matter.