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Goodhart's Law

what is goodharts law

GOOD-harts LAW

Once a measure is used as a target, people optimise the measure and the measure stops describing what it used to describe.

Charles Goodhart, 1975. The famous wording is Marilyn Strathern's, 1997.

// Where it sits

The moment it breaks
A measureA target

The law describes the transition, not either end state.

What it really means

The most-quoted sentence in modern management is attributed to the wrong person, in the wrong field, about the wrong subject.

When a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure — that is Marilyn Strathern, an anthropologist, writing in 1997 about audit in British universities.

What Charles Goodhart actually wrote, in 1975, in a paper on UK monetary management, is:

Any observed statistical regularity will tend to collapse once pressure is placed upon it for control purposes.

Denser, and considerably more precise. Goodhart was describing something specific to central banking: the Bank had noticed a stable relationship between a money-supply measure and inflation, and started targeting the measure. The relationship stopped holding. Not because anyone cheated — because the relationship had been a by-product of behaviour that nobody was steering, and steering it changed the behaviour.

That is the deeper claim, and it survives the loss of the catchphrase. A measure works as a proxy because of how it is generated. Target it, and you change the generating process — so the proxy is now measuring the response to being measured.

And Goodhart was not first. Campbell's law, on the corruption of quantitative social indicators, has formulations from 1969 — six years earlier. Which is itself informative: an idea that a psychologist and an economist arrived at independently, six years apart in unrelated fields — and that an anthropologist later gave its most quoted form — is usually describing something real.

One practical note. The slogan invites the response so don't use metrics, which is useless. A 2018 paper identifies at least four distinct failure mechanisms under the law — and they need different fixes. Knowing which one you have is the difference between a repairable measurement system and a slogan you repeat while it degrades.

Where it comes from

GoodhartCharles Goodhart, a Bank of England monetary economist

The version everyone quotes was written by an ANTHROPOLOGIST about university audit, not by Goodhart about money.

1975Charles Goodhart writes, in a paper on UK monetary management: 'Any observed statistical regularity will tend to collapse once pressure is placed upon it for control purposes.'
1997Marilyn Strathern's paper on audit in the British university system supplies the memorable phrasing.

Myths & misconceptions

Myth

Goodhart said 'when a measure becomes a target, it ceases to be a good measure'.

Reality

He did not. That phrasing is Marilyn Strathern's, from a 1997 paper on British university audit. Goodhart's own 1975 sentence is about statistical regularities collapsing under control pressure — and it was about MONETARY POLICY, not management.

Myth

Goodhart got there first.

Reality

Campbell's law, addressing the corruption of quantitative social indicators, has formulations dating to 1969 — six years earlier. The idea has been independently discovered several times, which is usually a sign it is true.

Compare & contrast

Goodhart's law vs the North Star Metric

The North Star Metric is Goodhart's Law's most confident modern violation. Naming one number as the target is exactly the pressure Goodhart described — the practice and the warning are the same sentence read in opposite directions.

//Goodhart's lawNorth Star Metric
SaysTargets corrupt measuresPick one measure as target
Stated19752010s
Aware of the othern/aUsually not
Both can be rightBrieflyBriefly

How it connects

Tell it apart

Questions people ask

What did Goodhart actually write?
That 'any observed statistical regularity will tend to collapse once pressure is placed upon it for control purposes' — written in 1975, about UK monetary management.
Who wrote the famous version?
The anthropologist Marilyn Strathern, in a 1997 paper on audit in British universities. The line everyone attributes to an economist was written by an anthropologist about universities.
Is there a taxonomy?
Yes — a 2018 paper identifies at least four distinct failure mechanisms, which is more useful than the slogan because different failures need different fixes.

Sources