A new thing arrives. A story spreads faster than the facts. Prices detach from anything real.
The last buyer runs out — and gravity returns. Scroll the line down and watch it happen, four times.
1637 · HAARLEM
Tulip Mania
In the Dutch Republic, rare tulip bulbs became a speculative frenzy. Contracts changed hands many times
before a single bulb was ever dug up; at the peak, some prized bulbs reportedly traded for the price of a
house. Then, at a routine auction, buyers simply didn't show — and the whole market evaporated in weeks.
▼ PEAK TO PANIC — a matter of weeks
THE LESSON ▸ when the reason to buy is only that prices are rising, you are the product,
not the customer. Figures from this era are debated by historians — treat them as illustrative.
1929 · NEW YORK
The Wall Street Crash
A decade of easy credit and buying stocks "on margin" inflated the 1920s bull market. When confidence
cracked in late October 1929, forced selling fed on itself over days now remembered as Black Thursday and
Black Tuesday. The collapse helped tip the world into the Great Depression.
▼ MARGIN DEBT TURNED A DIP INTO A CASCADE
THE LESSON ▸ leverageLeverage — borrowing to control a larger position than your cash allows. It multiplies gains and losses alike, which is how an ordinary decline becomes a wipeout. magnifies both directions. It is the mechanism that turns an
ordinary decline into a wipeout.
2000 · SILICON VALLEY
The Dot-com Bubble
The internet was real; the valuations were not. Companies with no profits — sometimes no revenue — soared
on stories about "eyeballs" and a new economy. When capital tightened in 2000, the Nasdaq lost roughly
three-quarters of its value over the following years, and thousands of firms disappeared.
▼ A REAL REVOLUTION, PRICED FOR FANTASY
THE LESSON ▸ a true story and a fair price are different questions. Being right about
the trend doesn't make every price rational.
2008 · GLOBAL
The Financial Crisis
Mortgages of shaky quality were bundled, rated safe, and sold worldwide. When U.S. housing turned, the
hidden linkages surfaced all at once; the failure of major institutions in 2008 froze credit globally and
triggered a deep recession.
▼ HIDDEN LEVERAGE, SYSTEM-WIDE
THE LESSON ▸ risk you can't see is still risk. Complexity that hides leverage is the
most dangerous kind.